— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
97¢
wn2
89¢
hres
69¢
eps
62¢
icon
55¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F29¢
70–71°F27¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-16T15:05:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape