— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
99¢
wn2
94¢
aifs
85¢
nbm
78¢
icon
67¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F10¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F25¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape