— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
85¢
aifs
84¢
nbm
78¢
icon
70¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
51¢
eps
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape