daily prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sun Oct 18

Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 84

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 82°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 13¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		98¢
aifs		72¢
nbm		64¢
ndfd		59¢
hres		57¢
wn2		53¢
eps		52¢
icon		4¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:41:27+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape