week prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sun Oct 18
Phoenix touches 100°F sometime this week
NO
settled · observed 88
on the tape
Any of the next 7 days settles it YES on the official record. Priced treating days as independent — real days are correlated, which narrows the true tails.
The Tape
what the models knew, when
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Day by Day
the window, priced
Mon Oct 12
0¢
Tue Oct 13
0¢
Wed Oct 14
0¢
Thu Oct 15
0¢
Fri Oct 16
1¢
Sat Oct 17
0¢
Sun Oct 18
1¢
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261018-WK-ANY100 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:56+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:41:42+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape