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daily prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Mon Oct 19

Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Mon Oct 19

53¢
american -112 · decimal 1.89
on the tape
The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.
Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 87°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢10/0410/1510/19 03:45
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price
aifs
84¢
rrfs
80¢
hres
72¢
hrrr
63¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
56¢
eps
52¢
wn2
42¢
icon
13¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F21¢
88–89°F44¢
90–91°F27¢
92–93°F5¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape