week prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Mon Oct 19
Phoenix touches 90°F sometime this week
YES
settled · observed 91
on the tape
Any of the next 7 days settles it YES on the official record. Priced treating days as independent — real days are correlated, which narrows the true tails.
The Tape
what the models knew, when
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Day by Day
the window, priced
Tue Oct 13
0¢
Wed Oct 14
0¢
Thu Oct 15
14¢
Fri Oct 16
20¢
Sat Oct 17
12¢
Sun Oct 18
31¢
Mon Oct 19
55¢
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261019-WK-ANY90 · opened 2026-10-12T07:49:16+00:00 · settled 2026-10-20T13:59:41+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape