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daily prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 20

Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

83¢
american -474 · decimal 1.21
on the tape
The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.
Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢10/0510/1510/20 12:00
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price
aifs
97¢
eps
84¢
wn2
81¢
hres
81¢
icon
68¢
nbm
67¢
ndfd
55¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits
88–89°F2¢
90–91°F23¢
92–93°F50¢
94–95°F23¢
96–97°F2¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape