— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
75¢
wn2
70¢
hres
62¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
52¢
icon
36¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F6¢
88–89°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape