— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
14¢
icon
7¢
ndfd
5¢
aifs
4¢
nbm
3¢
eps
2¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F17¢
86–87°F13¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE93 · opened 2026-10-18T11:03:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape