— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
92¢
icon
77¢
eps
76¢
wn2
76¢
aifs
76¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F15¢
84–85°F17¢
86–87°F15¢
88–89°F12¢
90–91°F8¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F2¢
96–97°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,316 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.851 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape