— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
wn2
100¢
rrfs
97¢
hres
92¢
aifs
91¢
nbm
75¢
icon
66¢
ndfd
57¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F28¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,317 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.753 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape