— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
75¢
rrfs
74¢
ndfd
57¢
nbm
56¢
wn2
55¢
eps
42¢
hrrr
39¢
icon
38¢
aifs
32¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F27¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,423 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.751 vs climatology 9.329.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape