daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Sep 12

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Sep 12

12¢

american +769 · decimal 8.69

on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		45¢
rrfs		34¢
nbm		23¢
wn2		22¢
ndfd		18¢
icon		12¢
aifs		12¢
eps		7¢
hrrr		4¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

72–73°F1¢

74–75°F6¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F26¢

80–81°F26¢

82–83°F16¢

84–85°F6¢

86–87°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,423 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.751 vs climatology 9.329.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape