daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Sep 13

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Sep 13

5¢

american +2083 · decimal 21.83

on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		60¢
wn2		51¢
rrfs		35¢
hres		31¢
ndfd		18¢
icon		5¢
eps		2¢
nbm		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

74–75°F1¢

76–77°F4¢

78–79°F13¢

80–81°F26¢

82–83°F29¢

84–85°F19¢

86–87°F7¢

88–89°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,374 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.963 vs climatology 9.328.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape