daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Tue Sep 15

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Sep 15

2¢

american +6523 · decimal 66.23

on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		26¢
hres		14¢
ndfd		8¢
rrfs		3¢
wn2		2¢
icon		2¢
nbm		2¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

74–75°F1¢

76–77°F11¢

78–79°F41¢

80–81°F38¢

82–83°F9¢

84–85°F0¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,639 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.565 vs climatology 9.303.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape