— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
98¢
eps
93¢
wn2
83¢
aifs
68¢
icon
63¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,651 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.513 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape