— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
96¢
eps
83¢
aifs
67¢
wn2
67¢
icon
59¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,649 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.513 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape