— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
84¢
hres
66¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
53¢
hrrr
46¢
icon
46¢
nbm
41¢
wn2
26¢
eps
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F10¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F33¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,210 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.559 vs climatology 9.164.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape