— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
aifs
100¢
hres
97¢
eps
97¢
icon
88¢
nbm
61¢
ndfd
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F28¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,523 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape