— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
hrrr
100¢
wn2
97¢
now
89¢
aifs
89¢
rrfs
86¢
icon
74¢
hres
72¢
nbm
64¢
ndfd
59¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F29¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,573 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.555 vs climatology 9.053.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape