— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
88¢
wn2
87¢
aifs
57¢
nbm
56¢
icon
53¢
hres
51¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F9¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,426 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.195 vs climatology 9.052.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE63 · opened 2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape