— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
91¢
aifs
91¢
wn2
89¢
now
65¢
hres
65¢
ndfd
59¢
rrfs
57¢
eps
55¢
icon
34¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F4¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F14¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 13,379 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.501 vs climatology 9.052.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape