— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
nbm
99¢
aifs
98¢
ndfd
94¢
hres
88¢
rrfs
77¢
eps
60¢
icon
38¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 13,691 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.467 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-06T20:00:53+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape