daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Wed Oct 14

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 14

50¢

american -100 · decimal 2.0

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		95¢
wn2		80¢
hres		48¢
eps		47¢
rrfs		39¢
nbm		32¢
now		32¢
ndfd		25¢
icon		12¢
hrrr		12¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F3¢

72–73°F12¢

74–75°F27¢

76–77°F32¢

78–79°F19¢

80–81°F6¢

82–83°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,199 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.519 vs climatology 8.892.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape