— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
wn2
95¢
aifs
89¢
icon
88¢
rrfs
76¢
nbm
75¢
hres
70¢
ndfd
59¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F3¢
48–49°F11¢
50–51°F24¢
52–53°F30¢
54–55°F21¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,254 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE50 · opened 2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape