— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
41¢
hres
30¢
nbm
25¢
rrfs
24¢
icon
12¢
aifs
11¢
wn2
5¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F3¢
48–49°F10¢
50–51°F23¢
52–53°F30¢
54–55°F22¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,254 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-LE49 · opened 2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape