— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
17¢
aifs
16¢
icon
10¢
ndfd
10¢
hres
4¢
nbm
1¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F6¢
58–59°F14¢
60–61°F22¢
62–63°F24¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape