— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
90¢
aifs
77¢
icon
64¢
nbm
55¢
hres
46¢
eps
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape