— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
95¢
wn2
94¢
eps
85¢
icon
64¢
nbm
53¢
hres
38¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F9¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261027-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape