— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
50¢
nbm
45¢
icon
28¢
eps
26¢
wn2
25¢
hres
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape