— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
wn2
41¢
eps
39¢
icon
19¢
hres
17¢
aifs
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F22¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape