daily prop · Raleigh, NC · Southeast · settles Fri Oct 23

Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

2¢

american +5714 · decimal 58.14

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		10¢
icon		8¢
wn2		7¢
ndfd		5¢
nbm		3¢
hres		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F5¢

64–65°F12¢

66–67°F21¢

68–69°F24¢

70–71°F20¢

72–73°F11¢

74–75°F4¢

76–77°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape