— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
54¢
eps
47¢
hres
40¢
aifs
35¢
icon
28¢
wn2
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape