daily prop · Raleigh, NC · Southeast · settles Sat Oct 24

Raleigh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

3¢

american +3746 · decimal 38.46

on the tape

59°F is the bottom-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present).

Canonical settlement condition: High ≤ 59°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		23¢
icon		12¢
eps		8¢
ndfd		7¢
aifs		3¢
nbm		1¢
wn2		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

58–59°F2¢

60–61°F6¢

62–63°F13¢

64–65°F20¢

66–67°F22¢

68–69°F19¢

70–71°F11¢

72–73°F5¢

74–75°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,414 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-LE59 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape