— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
84¢
aifs
77¢
icon
73¢
nbm
68¢
rrfs
57¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
45¢
eps
36¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F24¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape