— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
56¢
icon
44¢
eps
40¢
aifs
27¢
rrfs
24¢
nbm
12¢
wn2
11¢
hres
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape