— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
33¢
nbm
24¢
ndfd
15¢
hres
15¢
aifs
9¢
wn2
4¢
rrfs
4¢
eps
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F7¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F26¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-LE67 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape