— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
82¢
aifs
80¢
icon
79¢
hres
72¢
nbm
55¢
eps
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-16T13:29:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape