— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
67¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
41¢
hres
36¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
24¢
eps
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F12¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape