— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
46¢
eps
35¢
icon
30¢
hres
23¢
aifs
16¢
wn2
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape