— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
79¢
hres
68¢
icon
63¢
aifs
63¢
eps
61¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
hrrr
50¢
wn2
49¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F23¢
84–85°F30¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F10¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape