— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
13¢
hres
12¢
aifs
9¢
icon
9¢
rrfs
9¢
eps
4¢
nbm
2¢
wn2
2¢
hrrr
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F23¢
84–85°F30¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F10¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-14T10:34:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape