— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
hres
43¢
aifs
35¢
eps
32¢
wn2
28¢
icon
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F29¢
86–87°F22¢
88–89°F10¢
90–91°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape