— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
20¢
hres
16¢
icon
15¢
aifs
11¢
ndfd
5¢
nbm
4¢
eps
4¢
wn2
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F29¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F11¢
90–91°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape