— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
icon
53¢
hres
26¢
nbm
25¢
aifs
17¢
eps
12¢
wn2
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F29¢
86–87°F19¢
88–89°F7¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape