— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
hres
38¢
icon
38¢
nbm
25¢
aifs
17¢
eps
12¢
wn2
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F26¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F13¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape