— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
54¢
hres
52¢
aifs
45¢
wn2
39¢
eps
37¢
icon
32¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F15¢
86–87°F10¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F2¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape