daily prop · Seattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sat Oct 17

Seattle high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

YES

settled · observed 62

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 62°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		100¢
rrfs		71¢
hres		70¢
aifs		70¢
wn2		70¢
nbm		62¢
ndfd		59¢
icon		37¢
hrrr		17¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KSEA-20261017-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:25+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:09:30+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape