— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
79¢
icon
66¢
wn2
64¢
nbm
57¢
hres
56¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F8¢
56–57°F16¢
58–59°F23¢
60–61°F23¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,153 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.883.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape